A few short years before the moon landing, people said it was impossible. A few years after the landing, some were predicting moon bases in 1985. We constantly overpredict or underpredict. Some predictions seem reasonable, such as people flying with artificial wings or ships that can run on railway tracks, but they are never fulfilled. And some things that do happen, such as the internet, seem to come out of the blue.
Why is it so hard to predict more than about 5 years into the future? Are there ways we can think of to improve our predictions? Why were we wrong in the past? Will some predictions that are being made now be accurate? Are predictions in any way useful even if we cannot trust them?
Come and discuss the art of predictions. Bring your crystal ball!
IM Vulcan Viper if you have ideas for new subjects.
Come and discuss the art of predictions. Bring your crystal ball!
IM Vulcan Viper if you have ideas for new subjects.
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